SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311804
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-312030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NE NV...NW UT AND FAR SE ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 311804Z - 312030Z
TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS ECNTRL/NE NV AND MOVE
ENE INTO NW UT AND FAR SE ID BY LATE AFTN. A FEW SVR TSTMS WILL BE
PSBL WITH DMGG/SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. WW WILL BE PSBL FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVE.
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS SHOW INCREASED DARKENING OVER N
CA/NW NV...INDICATIVE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ENE AND MOVE TOWARD NW UT AND SE ID LATER THIS
AFTN. LARGER SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS N NV WAS ALREADY
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION FROM CNTRL
ELKO SWWD INTO WRN NYE COUNTIES IN NV. VSBL SATL/RADAR SHOWS A BKN
BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ZONE...ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE MONSOONAL MSTR PLUME. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SLY
LLVL FLOW WAS ADVECTING NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS NWD. COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND CONTINUED IMPROVING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTN AHEAD OF
THE APCHG FRONT.
BACKING MID-LVL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE UPR IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONALITY TO THE WIND PROFILES. BUT...
SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT A MIXED
STORM MODE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG/SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE TSTMS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO ORGANIZE AS INSTABILITY RAMPS
UP AND PEAKS LATER THIS AFTN AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN
ENE. THUS...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SVR TSTMS SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN AND GENERALLY FROM ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER ENE
INTO THE NW UT DESERTS AND FAR SE ID. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PEAK IN
INTENSITY AS IT APCHS THE GREAT SALT LAKE/URBAN CORRIDOR/WASATCH
FRONT BY EARLY EVENING.
..RACY.. 08/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...LKN...
40471143 39691232 38931353 38871422 38921499 39291563
39581586 40581522 41581394 42511208 42501118
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment