KAMA [190110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 190110
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
810 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 5 E WELLINGTON 34.86N 100.12W
10/18/2010 E1.00 INCH COLLINGSWORTH TX PUBLIC

HAIL SIZE RANGED FROM DIMES TO QUARTERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000835

$$

NUTTALL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190055
SWODY1
SPC AC 190054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WHILE FARTHER E TROUGHING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
2/3 OF THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WSWWD INTO OK/NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASE IN UPPER TROUGHING.

PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NM/NRN AZ
AND WWD INTO THE SRN SIERRA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK
INSTABILITY -- WHICH WILL FURTHER DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING --
SUGGESTS A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH TIME.

FARTHER E...SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS ATOP THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.
WHILE A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS...THREAT FOR ONE INCH OR GREATER HAIL APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2010

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KVEF [190050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 190050
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
550 PM PDT MON OCT 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TORNADO 12 ESE CEDAR HILLS 35.12N 113.58W
10/18/2010 MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS THAT A TORNADO TORE ROOF TILES OFF HIS
HOUSE NEAR MOUNTAIN TRAIL AND PINTO IN KINGMAN. PD
OFFICER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD AT 0515 PM MST IN THE AREA.
POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO ANOTHER HOME NEAR OMAHA STREET IN
KINGMAN. ONLY TWO HOMES KNOWN TO HAVE DAMAGE.

&&

$$

LJENSEN

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KJAX [182141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 182141
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 PM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM WILDFIRE 5 SSE JUNIPER SPRINGS 29.11N 81.71W
10/18/2010 MARION FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

FOREST SERVICE REPORTED A 10 ACRE WILDFIRE IN THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST SOUTH OF JUNIPER SPRINGS.

&&

$$

JHESS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181914
SWODY1
SPC AC 181912

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADS EWD INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY WEAK WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INTENSIFIES. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

..JEWELL.. 10/18/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010/

COLD UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL CA COAST WILL BE HEADING SWD TO A
POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF SAN BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME
FURTHER DISPLACED OFFSHORE. WHILE INTERIOR SWRN U.S. REMAINS UNDER
A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THE AIR MASS IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHICH WILL RESPOND TO DAYTIME HEATING IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH A MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COASTAL SRN CA...ANY CONVECTION INCLUDING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LIMITED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181648
SWODY2
SPC AC 181647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS ON TUE
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED...THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE THERMAL
FIELDS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR WWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT EWD
TOWARDS NRN BAJA CA...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SRN CA
AND WRN AZ. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE...VERY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...N TX...RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY TUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE
REGENERATING BY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS APPEAR PROBABLE GIVEN LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS NRN TX. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
WNW WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING CELLS...A FEW LONG LIVED AND PRODUCING
HAIL OVER 1.00 INCH IN DIAMETER. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD
LARGELY BE SUB-SEVERE GIVEN WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..JEWELL.. 10/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181554
SWODY1
SPC AC 181552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL CA COAST WILL BE HEADING SWD TO A
POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF SAN BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME
FURTHER DISPLACED OFFSHORE. WHILE INTERIOR SWRN U.S. REMAINS UNDER
A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THE AIR MASS IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHICH WILL RESPOND TO DAYTIME HEATING IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH A MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COASTAL SRN CA...ANY CONVECTION INCLUDING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LIMITED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181234
SWODY1
SPC AC 181233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BECOME MORE
DETACHED FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE NATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING OVER A RATHER LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...UNTIL MORE FOCUSED LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONCENTRATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF OK/KS AFTER
DARK. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/18/2010

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KREV [180917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 180917
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 AM PDT MON OCT 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE VIRGINIA CITY 39.24N 119.60W
10/17/2010 M0.50 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN DOWNTOWN DAYTON.

1255 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N RENO 39.61N 119.82W
10/18/2010 M0.51 INCH WASHOE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 5PM-11PM 10/17/10 AT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

1257 AM HEAVY RAIN RENO 39.54N 119.82W
10/18/2010 M0.49 INCH WASHOE NV ASOS

6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 5PM-11PM AT THE RENO-TAHOE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

1259 AM HEAVY RAIN DOG VALLEY 39.55N 120.04W
10/18/2010 M0.57 INCH SIERRA CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE DOG VALLEY RAWS STATION.

0101 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E DONNER SUMMIT 39.33N 120.35W
10/18/2010 M0.51 INCH NEVADA CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT DONNER LAKE, CA.

0107 AM HEAVY RAIN ALPINE MEADOWS 39.17N 120.22W
10/18/2010 M0.67 INCH PLACER CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT STATION IN ALPINE MEADOWS, CA.

0108 AM HEAVY RAIN HOMEWOOD 39.08N 120.16W
10/18/2010 M0.45 INCH PLACER CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE RAWS STATION IN HOMEWOOD,
CA.

0110 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.14W
10/18/2010 M0.47 INCH PLACER CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE TRUCKEE RIVER AT TAHOE CITY
STATION.

0113 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 SSW RENO 39.40N 119.89W
10/18/2010 M0.48 INCH WASHOE NV MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE GALENA RAWS STATION.

0114 AM HEAVY RAIN SPARKS 39.54N 119.74W
10/18/2010 M0.56 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN SPARKS, NV.

0153 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW RENO 39.49N 119.89W
10/18/2010 M0.63 INCH WASHOE NV MESONET

6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 5PM-11PM 10/17/10 AT ALUM
CREEK STATION.

0157 AM HEAVY RAIN NNW VIRGINIA CITY 39.31N 119.64W
10/18/2010 M0.51 INCH STOREY NV MESONET

6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 5PM-11PM AT THE BAILEY CREEK
STATION.

0159 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE WASHOE CITY 39.35N 119.77W
10/18/2010 M0.47 INCH WASHOE NV MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT STEAMBOAT CREEK SENSOR.

0201 AM HEAVY RAIN SQUAW VALLEY 39.20N 120.22W
10/18/2010 M0.57 INCH PLACER CA MESONET

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT THE SQUAW VALLEY BASE CAMP
SENSOR.

&&

$$

MCGUIRE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180844
SWOD48
SPC AC 180843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
STG HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING ERN PAC TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN WRN
CONUS REX PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND SEND INITIALLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE
NEWD FROM SONORA/AZ REGION. MOST MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/UKMET/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT
WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ITS STRENGTH AND LATITUDINAL
POSITIONING. SOME SVR MAY OCCUR WITH THIS PERTURBATION DAYS
4-5/21ST-23RD...AS IT EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...ASSIGNMENT OF SPECIFIC AREA FOR
ORGANIZED SVR CONCENTRATION AOA 30% APPEARS PREMATURE BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON MASS
FIELDS...QUALITY OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE FORCING
WITHIN THAT MOIST SECTOR. CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SVR OVER SOME
PART OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAYS 6-7/23RD-25TH...WITH FURTHER SWRN
CONUS TROUGHING CAUSING STG IMPLIED SHEAR OVER INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF/WHEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
SPREAD TIGHTENS AND CONVECTIVE FOCI BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

..EDWARDS.. 10/18/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180606
SWODY3
SPC AC 180605

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...REX PATTERN OVER WRN CONUS IS FCST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN PAC...AHEAD OF
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NONETHELESS...PRONOUNCED RIDGING SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NWWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR
PAC NW REGION...RESULTING IN SLOW PROGRESSION OF BAJA/LOWER CO
VALLEY CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND. BY END OF PERIOD...MESO-ALPHA SCALE
SPREAD APPEARS IN SREF GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...OPERATIONAL WRF BEING SLOWEST OVER YUM-EED AREA AND 4
WRF-ARW SREF MEMBERS BEING FASTEST INVOF SRN/CENTRAL UT. GIVEN
HISTORICAL TRENDS WITH TOO-HASTY MODEL EJECTION OF BAJA-AREA
CUT-OFFS...AND LACK OF STG HEIGHT FALLS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...WILL
TREND FCST BACK TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE SLY SPECTRAL/WRF-NAM
SOLUTIONS.

MEANWHILE...E OF ROCKIES...SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES...EMBEDDED IN BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAD TO
STG SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS
CAROLINAS. AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD TO CENTRAL-ERN GULF COAST REGION...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY WNWWD ACROSS SW TX AND SERN NM.

...SRN NV TO FAR W TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS
POCKETS OF STG SFC HEATING...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND OVER W TX AND SRN
NM...FRONTAL LIFT FOSTER STORM INITIATION. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THREAT SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL...DIMINISHING
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNDOWN.

STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR...JUXTAPOSED WITH 500 MB WINDS 30-40 KT. THIS FLOW WILL BE
FROM E AND SE ACROSS SRN NV/NRN AZ...AND SWLY OVER SRN NM FAR W TX.
RESULT SHOULD BE VEERING/STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN ALL
THESE AREAS...WITH DIVERGING CELL MOTION...TSTMS MOVING NWLY TO NLY
OVER WRN AREAS AND NELY TO ENELY ACROSS SRN NM AND W TX. FCST
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER MUCH OF THIS SWATH SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
CURVATURE...BUT MOSTLY WEAK SPEEDS. PRE-EXISTING/RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT ACTIVITY FROM WRN NM WWD. MEANWHILE NWRN FRINGE OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF RETURN-FLOW REGIME WILL SPREAD INTO SERN NM
IN WARM CONVEYOR NEAR SFC FRONTAL ZONE. POSITION OF CORRIDOR OF
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT
AS PROGS OF CYCLONE POSITION TIGHTEN AND LOCATION OF RELATED BELT OF
STRONGEST SHEAR BECOMES MORE WELL-DEFINED.

..EDWARDS.. 10/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180538
SWODY1
SPC AC 180536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SWD WITH TIME TO
A POSITION OFF SERN CA/NWRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXPAND ACROSS ERN NOAM AS SEVERAL SHORTER-WAVELENGTH
FEATURES DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/MIDWESTERN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SSEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION/MO/KS WITH TIME...REACHING THE TN VALLEY
AREA/AR/SRN OK/N TX BY 19/12Z.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EWD INTO SRN KS/OK/N
TX AND ADJACENT AREAS. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTIVE OF GENERALLY WEAK
CONVECTION.

SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED LIFT SHOULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT N OF THE
SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OK AND VICINITY...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT MORE PERSISTENT ELEVATED STORMS. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MORE THAN SMALL HAIL -- THUS
PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/18/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180535
SWODY2
SPC AC 180534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR SETUP THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY REX PATTERN
OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA...ANCHORED BY RIDGING FROM PAC NW ACROSS FAR
WRN CANADA...AND SLOW-MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW MOVING SEWD
JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA COAST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF CONUS E OF
ROCKIES...INCLUDING GENTLY CURVING SUBTROPICAL JET OVER GULF COAST
AND BROAD NRN-STREAM JET FROM UPPER MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STG CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES CENTER OF 500 MB CYCLONE WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE
SAN BY 20/00Z. CYCLONE THEN SHOULD TURN EWD AND MOVE INLAND OVER
EXTREME NRN BAJA AND EXTREME SRN CA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN CO...KS AND MO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS OH VALLEY...OZARKS AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS DAY-1. BY 20/00Z...FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
SRN APPALACHIANS...NRN AL AND MS...QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER W ACROSS
CENTRAL/SW TX.

...CENTRAL TX TO ARKLATEX REGION AND NRN LA...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- PRIMARILY ELEVATED IN NATURE
-- MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OK...NW TX
AND AR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SEWD...ITS OUTFLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
BAROCLINICITY IN FRONTAL ZONE.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FCST TO DEVELOP
INVOF FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE...DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND
ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ERODE CINH. BECAUSE OF
PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT TRAJECTORIES FROM CONTINENTAL
ANTICYCLONE...MARINE AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE OVER
WRN GULF. HOWEVER...PLUME OF 50S TO MID-60S DEW POINTS ALREADY HAS
BEEN ANALYZED ON 18/03Z SFC CHART. EXPECT BALANCE OF VERTICAL
MIXING AND MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT TO YIELD DEW POINTS UPPER
50S TO MID 60S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE COMMONLY 1000-1500
J/KG...LOCALLY NEAR 2000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS WILL
LIMIT SHEAR...ALTHOUGH STG UPPER FLOW BENEATH N RIM OF SUBTROPICAL
JET MAY AID IN STORM VENTILATION/ORGANIZATION. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS MAY FOSTER STG TO DAMAGING GUSTS FROM A FEW TSTMS...AND
ISOLATED SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

...SRN NV/NWRN AZ TO SRN CA...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WINDS -- I.E. 30-40 KT AT 500
MB -- IS FCST TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH MRGL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...FROM AREA BETWEEN LAS-YUM NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN CA.
VEERING OF FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IN SOME LOCALES...ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...MID-UPPER LAPSE RATES NOT MUCH GREATER THAN MOIST
ADIABATIC ARE PROGGED...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING BUOYANCY. ATTM SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/18/2010

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