SWOD48
SPC AC 180843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
STG HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING ERN PAC TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN WRN
CONUS REX PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND SEND INITIALLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE
NEWD FROM SONORA/AZ REGION. MOST MREF MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL/UKMET/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT
WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ITS STRENGTH AND LATITUDINAL
POSITIONING. SOME SVR MAY OCCUR WITH THIS PERTURBATION DAYS
4-5/21ST-23RD...AS IT EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...ASSIGNMENT OF SPECIFIC AREA FOR
ORGANIZED SVR CONCENTRATION AOA 30% APPEARS PREMATURE BASED ON
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON MASS
FIELDS...QUALITY OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE...AND CONVECTIVE FORCING
WITHIN THAT MOIST SECTOR. CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR SVR OVER SOME
PART OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAYS 6-7/23RD-25TH...WITH FURTHER SWRN
CONUS TROUGHING CAUSING STG IMPLIED SHEAR OVER INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF/WHEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
SPREAD TIGHTENS AND CONVECTIVE FOCI BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
..EDWARDS.. 10/18/2010
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