SWODY3
SPC AC 180605
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...REX PATTERN OVER WRN CONUS IS FCST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NERN PAC...AHEAD OF
STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NONETHELESS...PRONOUNCED RIDGING SHOULD
CONTINUE FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS NWWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR
PAC NW REGION...RESULTING IN SLOW PROGRESSION OF BAJA/LOWER CO
VALLEY CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND. BY END OF PERIOD...MESO-ALPHA SCALE
SPREAD APPEARS IN SREF GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...OPERATIONAL WRF BEING SLOWEST OVER YUM-EED AREA AND 4
WRF-ARW SREF MEMBERS BEING FASTEST INVOF SRN/CENTRAL UT. GIVEN
HISTORICAL TRENDS WITH TOO-HASTY MODEL EJECTION OF BAJA-AREA
CUT-OFFS...AND LACK OF STG HEIGHT FALLS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...WILL
TREND FCST BACK TOWARD SLOWER AND MORE SLY SPECTRAL/WRF-NAM
SOLUTIONS.
MEANWHILE...E OF ROCKIES...SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES...EMBEDDED IN BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAD TO
STG SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS
CAROLINAS. AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD TO CENTRAL-ERN GULF COAST REGION...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY WNWWD ACROSS SW TX AND SERN NM.
...SRN NV TO FAR W TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AS
POCKETS OF STG SFC HEATING...OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND OVER W TX AND SRN
NM...FRONTAL LIFT FOSTER STORM INITIATION. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THREAT SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNAL...DIMINISHING
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR...JUXTAPOSED WITH 500 MB WINDS 30-40 KT. THIS FLOW WILL BE
FROM E AND SE ACROSS SRN NV/NRN AZ...AND SWLY OVER SRN NM FAR W TX.
RESULT SHOULD BE VEERING/STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN ALL
THESE AREAS...WITH DIVERGING CELL MOTION...TSTMS MOVING NWLY TO NLY
OVER WRN AREAS AND NELY TO ENELY ACROSS SRN NM AND W TX. FCST
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER MUCH OF THIS SWATH SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
CURVATURE...BUT MOSTLY WEAK SPEEDS. PRE-EXISTING/RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT ACTIVITY FROM WRN NM WWD. MEANWHILE NWRN FRINGE OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF RETURN-FLOW REGIME WILL SPREAD INTO SERN NM
IN WARM CONVEYOR NEAR SFC FRONTAL ZONE. POSITION OF CORRIDOR OF
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT
AS PROGS OF CYCLONE POSITION TIGHTEN AND LOCATION OF RELATED BELT OF
STRONGEST SHEAR BECOMES MORE WELL-DEFINED.
..EDWARDS.. 10/18/2010
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