Monday, October 18, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180538
SWODY1
SPC AC 180536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA COAST IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SWD WITH TIME TO
A POSITION OFF SERN CA/NWRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...UPPER
TROUGHING WILL EXPAND ACROSS ERN NOAM AS SEVERAL SHORTER-WAVELENGTH
FEATURES DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/MIDWESTERN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SSEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION/MO/KS WITH TIME...REACHING THE TN VALLEY
AREA/AR/SRN OK/N TX BY 19/12Z.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EWD INTO SRN KS/OK/N
TX AND ADJACENT AREAS. LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTIVE OF GENERALLY WEAK
CONVECTION.

SOMEWHAT MORE FOCUSED LIFT SHOULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT N OF THE
SWD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS OK AND VICINITY...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT MORE PERSISTENT ELEVATED STORMS. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF ANY MORE THAN SMALL HAIL -- THUS
PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/18/2010

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