SWODY2
SPC AC 181647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS ON TUE
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING SEWD OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT AS
PRONOUNCED...THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE THERMAL
FIELDS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT...PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY CONVECTION...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR WWD ALONG THE RED
RIVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT EWD
TOWARDS NRN BAJA CA...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SRN CA
AND WRN AZ. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO BE
TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE...VERY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...N TX...RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY TUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE
REGENERATING BY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS APPEAR PROBABLE GIVEN LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS NRN TX. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE WEAK...MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
WNW WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING CELLS...A FEW LONG LIVED AND PRODUCING
HAIL OVER 1.00 INCH IN DIAMETER. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD
LARGELY BE SUB-SEVERE GIVEN WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AND MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL.. 10/18/2010
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