SWOD48
SPC AC 310823
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...HIGHLIGHTED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
STATES. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE INLAND REMNANTS OF
GUSTAV...WHICH LATEST NHC FORECASTS PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY. RESIDUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT GUSTAV...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
INTERACTION OF A WEAKENING/STALLING SYNOPTIC FRONT...MAY LEAD TO
LINGERING TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH DAY
4/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN DAY 5/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME
TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY EXIST AS GUSTAV BECOMES INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL...INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
POSITIONING/TIMING OF GUSTAV REMNANTS PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF
SEVERE/TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL
SYSTEM HANNA MAY ALSO EVENTUALLY BE A FACTOR FOR TORNADOES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FL/GA/CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK...BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
..GUYER.. 08/31/2008
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