SWODY3
SPC AC 310726
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AR...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE
GULF COAST REGION/ARKLATEX VICINITY AS AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS.
...ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...HURRICANE GUSTAV SHOULD MOVE
INLAND/SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON
TUESDAY. REFERENCE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TIMING/POSITIONING OF
GUSTAV AS IT MOVES INLAND...AN ENVELOPE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS/SRH WILL EXIST ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF GUSTAV TUESDAY.
AMIDST A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH 70-75 F
DEWPOINTS...TORNADOES /AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE/ WILL
BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...SEEMINGLY MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/LA/AR. WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THE GREATEST RISK SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS INSOLATION BOOSTS NEAR-SURFACE
CAPE/UPDRAFT VIGOR.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
AS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT MAKES A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
SOME TSTM UPSWING MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY OWING
TO THE FRONTAL FORCING...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODEST
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY /1000 J PER KG OR LESS MLCAPE/ AND
FRONT-LAGGING MAXIMUM SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STRONG STORM
VIGOR/LONGEVITY. WHILE A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 08/31/2008
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