SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152155
AZZ000-152330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152155Z - 152330Z
ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL AZ...WITH
ISOLATED STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES...AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDED FROM WRN
PIMA TO SWRN/WRN MARICOPA COUNTIES.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A WEAKLY SHEARED AND MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN INTO CENTRAL AZ SUPPORTIVE OF
PULSE-TYPE TSTMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN APPARENT WEAK MID
LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH A SECOND NWD
MOVING IMPULSE OVER FAR NWRN MEXICO. THESE IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDED NWD FROM MEXICO
AND SURGED INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...ASCENT WITH THESE IMPULSES AND
SOME ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EWD INTO CA WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR
LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION...40-45 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WITHIN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER PULSE-TYPE
TSTMS. IN ADDITION TO THIS THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
.PETERS.. 09/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
32071349 32901353 33921356 34151325 34011260 34181162
33871112 32631074 31681047 31321042 31301105
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