DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251707
SWODY2
SPC AC 251705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ROTATING AROUND
THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOL/DRY AIR
MASS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS TX.

...W CNTRL TX...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD INTO NWRN TX AND CNTRL OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BRING MID 50S F DEWPOINTS TO
THE FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM W TX INTO SWRN
OK...WHICH WILL CREATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ERODING CIN.
STORMS WILL THUS EASILY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION.
WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK...GOOD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AT OR BELOW GOLF BALL SIZE...WITH LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SUN SETS AND STORMS WEAKEN
DUE TO WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..JEWELL.. 10/25/2013

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