DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251614
SWODY1
SPC AC 251612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM QSTNRY CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA CST. IN THE
SRN BRANCH...NRN AZ UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO NRN NM BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER W TX EARLY SAT AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF WNWLY NRN STREAM
JET.

AT THE SFC...WEAK SSELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NM AND VICINITY ON
BACK SIDE OF EXPANSIVE CP SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VLY.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER S TO SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT AREA RAOB AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN INTO NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NEIGHBORING STATES WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

...FOUR CORNERS TO W TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
AN ARC OF SCTD TSTMS HAS PERSISTED SINCE LATE THU IN ZONE OF
ELEVATED ASCENT E AND SE OF NRN AZ UPR LOW. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY E TODAY...IN TANDEM WITH THE
LOW. WHILE SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN FRINGE OF EXISTING
STORMS...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
REGION IMMEDIATELY N AND E OF MID-LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME THAT ATTM
EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SE AND SSE ACROSS CNTRL AND SE NM.

SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS
GIVEN MODERATE STATIC /I.E. DRY/ INSTABILITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE ZONE OF GREATEST ASCENT SHIFTS E
INTO W TX TNGT/EARLY SAT.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/25/2013

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