SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151215
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-151315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/FAR SWRN WI/NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151215Z - 151315Z
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN IA INTO FAR
SWRN WI/NWRN IL THROUGH 14-15Z AS ELEVATED TSTMS MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE MCS EXTENDING FROM SRN-SERN MN/
NERN IA EWD INTO SWRN WI/FAR NWRN IL WITH OVERALL CLOUD TOPS WARMING
SINCE 1030Z...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. AT 12Z...STRONGEST TSTMS EXTENDED FROM FLOYD COUNTY SWWD TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NRN IA...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DOWNSTREAM FROM SERN MN/NERN IA INTO
SWRN WI. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS LEADING CONVECTION EXTENDED
FROM EAST CENTRAL IA WNWWD TO JUST S OF THE STRONGER TSTMS. THIS
ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WAA
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY MAINTAIN ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
SUPPORTS EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS.
GIVEN THAT TSTMS ARE ELEVATED...OVERALL WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
STRONGEST LINE SEGMENT IS TRACKING ESEWD AT 30-35 KT...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
.PETERS.. 08/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
42499345 43219289 43499269 43479077 42968941 42188873
41688933 41919174
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