SWODY2
SPC AC 150548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NRN
STATES INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
A SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIST UPSTREAM FROM THIS AMPLIFYING
TROUGH...FROM WY/MT NWD ACROSS INTERIOR AND NW CANADA. MEANWHILE...A
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MAY MAKE GRADUAL INROADS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BROAD SUMMERTIME RIDGE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN U.S. WILL PERSIST WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTAL
REGION BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST.
..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST...
INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN RAPIDLY EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR FROM IND/OH EWD/NEWD ACROSS PA/NY THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THESE
AREAS WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR WEAK WAVE LOWS...POSSIBLY FORMING
SPORADICALLY ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS FROM OH ENEWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS POTENTIAL MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGEST WEAK DECOUPLING DEVELOPING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING COULD LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS WEAK
LOW LEVEL INHIBITION WITH WIND AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
PERSISTING WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS.
AS COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DURING
THE DAY...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION
OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM IL/IND/OH EWD ACROSS PA AND
PERHAPS WRN NY. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND
FORCING...COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE UPPER OH
VALLEY...INDICATE A POTENTIAL CORRIDOR OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS IN THIS REGION.
SHEAR AND FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL
DIMINISH WITH WWD EXTENT...FROM IL WWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...STRONG DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS...COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING BOUNDARY...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
..LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...
LATEST TPC TRACK FORECAST FOR TD 5 HAS THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL
STORM STATUS AND MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CRP ON THURSDAY. INTENSIFYING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN AND RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. REFER TO
LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM.
.CARBIN.. 08/15/2007
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