SWODY2
SPC AC 111733
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SWRN STATES. VORT MAX OVER UT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE INTO NRN
NM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM ERN NC SWWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREA AND INTO SRN TX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO MAY DRIFT ONTO THE SRN TX COAST.
..NM THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.
..UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER JET.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD OVER MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ERN ND INTO NRN MN WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
..ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SC SWWD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREA INTO SRN AND ERN TX. WEAK
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
.DIAL.. 09/11/2007
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