SWODY3
SPC AC 110729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS THE UPPER
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE SHOULD MOVE
INTO/ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS SWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
..IA SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO KS...
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN/AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NEAR AND AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT. THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD
PROVE A HINDRANCE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FIRE NEAR THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON -- SOMEWHERE ALONG
A CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY IA SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS.
WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW ANY STORMS WHICH CAN
DEVELOP TO TAKE ON SOME ORGANIZATION. WHILE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD THEREFORE ACCOMPANY ANY AFTERNOON
WARM-SECTOR STORM...MODELS ALSO HINT THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT COULD BE
LIMITED TO HAIL WITH ELEVATED/PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL STORMS N OF THE
FRONT. IN EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST...AND THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY
ATTM.
.GOSS.. 09/11/2007
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