SWODY1
SPC AC 120040
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONGLY-FORCED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE EXHIBITING SOME LEWP
CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES EWD THROUGH VT AND SERN NY THIS
EVENING...DRIVEN BY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND IS RELATIVELY COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/ OWING TO
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
00Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WSWLY FLOW WITH
HEIGHT WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
ANY MORE ORGANIZED WITH THREAT.
..E-CNTRL NM...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED OVER TORRANCE AND
GUADALUPE COUNTIES WITHIN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
OBSERVED BY 00Z ABQ SOUNDING. BOTH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND DURATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OR SOME HAIL WITH ONGOING
STORMS THROUGH 02-03Z.
.MEAD.. 09/12/2007
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