SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112311
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-120015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112311Z - 120015Z
LOW-TOPPED PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NERN PA
NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
STRONGLY-FORCED NARROW COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH EMBEDDED
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AROUND 20KT WITH ENEWD
CELL MOTION IN THE 40-50KT RANGE THIS EVENING. LOW INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT /ESTIMATED MUCAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 500 J PER KG/ WAS
BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF
INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET. STRONGER SURFACE- BASED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN BRIEF VELOCITY COUPLETS
AND REAR-INFLOW NOTCHES THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LIGHTNING...REFLECTIVITY...AND IR
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST LITTLE RECENT CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
TIME OF DAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SUPPORT BY HIGH-RES WRF
OUTPUT.
.CARBIN.. 09/11/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...
42147437 41607531 41437636 41577660 42417548 43037455
44347318 43977285 43337306
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