SWODY2
SPC AC 170525
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MN/WRN WI SWWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN KS...
..SYNOPSIS...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD THROUGH
THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD FROM W-CNTRL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD/SEWD...LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB TO INTERSECTION
WITH PRESSURE TROUGH OVER N-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
..UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
AN EXPANSIVE...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
TUESDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF MN SWWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN
NEB...PERHAPS INTO KS. A DIURNAL DECREASE IN AREAL STORM COVERAGE
MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF MN/WI INTO NERN NEB/NWRN IA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF NOCTURNAL
STORMS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPES
WILL APPROACH 1500-2500 J/KG.
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA SWWD INTO CNTRL KS. THE
PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD RATHER QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE TO A
CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT
DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS IA...NWRN MO AND ERN KS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...ONGOING STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO WRN WI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.
.MEAD.. 09/17/2007
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