SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170744
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1975
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...UT...CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170744Z - 171015Z
A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE
EARLY TODAY ACROSS REMOTE SECTIONS OF NERN AZ...SERN UT...AND WRN
CO. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
JET...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM NERN AZ TO WRN CO. DECREASING STATIC STABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...COUPLED WITH UNUSUALLY
DEEP MOISTURE...WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG
BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND GOES SOUNDINGS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITHIN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT. SPC HAIL GUIDANCE BASED ON BOTH NAM-WRF
AND RUC MODELS INDICATES MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO 1
INCH IN DIAMETER. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED
THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
.CARBIN.. 09/17/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
37630866 36140989 35211132 36131194 37041164 38811124
39911014 40050863 39420813
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