MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2030

ACUS11 KWNS 111407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111406
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111406Z - 111600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW N/S CORRIDOR ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS HAS
INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR CENTERED FROM NEAR EED TO BLH. THIS
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A NARROW PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH GENERALLY 60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE LAKE HAVASU AREA PER MESONET
OBSERVATIONS. 12Z LAS VEGAS AND YUMA RAOBS SAMPLED MUCAPE AROUND
700-1000 J/KG...GREATER THAN DEPICTED IN SPC OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS.
WITHIN THE EXIT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA AND
GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG SPEED SHEAR NOTED ABOVE 1 KM AGL IN THE YUMA
RAOB...SETUP SHOULD FAVOR TRANSIENT SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 10/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34941508 35321531 35661521 35781460 35511416 34871396
34111395 33451413 33341443 33731474 34941508

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.