DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111729
SWODY2
SPC AC 111727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD...ATTENTION FROM A CONVECTIVE PERSPECTIVE
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
NEWD TOWARD THE PLAINS REGION.

THIS LOW -- FORECAST TO UNDERGO A CYCLE OF WEAKENING AND THEN
RE-STRENGTHENING AS IT CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES AND APPROACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE -- SHOULD PERMIT COLD FRONTOGENESIS E OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NEB SWWD ACROSS KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...KS SSWWD INTO ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX...
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW. AS A
SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS LOW
OVERSPREADS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SLYS...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

ATTM...THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE MODELS PERHAPS A BIT AGGRESSIVE
WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL. ATTM...GREATEST SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT -- WHICH
SHOULD INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ALONG WITH
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL -- APPEARS TO EXIST FROM ERN NM AND ADJACENT WRN
TX NEWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR SWRN
KS. OVERNIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TOWARD PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT -- WITH THIS THREAT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS KS AND TO SOME DEGREE INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/11/2012

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