SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222025
AZZ000-222230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222025Z - 222230Z
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DEEP SLY FLOW EAST OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST
IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADVECTION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH
AZ. SURFACE HEATING GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE RIM HAS RESULTED IN A
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER SRN AZ WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AZ WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. RECENT VWP DATA SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
SLY WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KT ABOVE 3 KM WITH DEEP SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 40 KT. THIS WIND PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND SOME STORMS SPLITS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED. THE DEEP SLY WIND PROFILE IS ALSO ENHANCING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIM. THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
.DIAL.. 09/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
35041134 33331077 32711130 32681221 33511287 34751305
35811311 36161204
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