DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160443
SWODY2
SPC AC 160441

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH
THE OH/TN VALLEYS THURSDAY AND INTO THE NERN STATES LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS ROCKIES AND PLAINS REGION. AT THE SFC AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE TRAILING PORTIONS OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...WHILE REMAINING PORTION ADVANCES TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS FROM NEAR 70 ALONG THE
GULF COAST TO NEAR 60 OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL RESIDE IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WITH MUCAPE
BELOW 500 J/KG EXPECTED. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD
ALONG THE FRONT AND IN POST FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN U.S. THROUGH
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE RELATIVELY
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
WAVE...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

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