DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160722
SWODY3
SPC AC 160721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MS VALLEY
AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH
OK AND TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH S AND SERN TX.

...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX...

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH
NEAR 70 ALONG THE SRN THROUGH SERN COASTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WARM LAYERS ALOFT WHICH /IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURNING MOISTURE/ SHOULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...BUT LOW
LEVEL RESPONSE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH MODEST FLOW FORECAST IN THE
SFC-700 MB LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL APPROACH
40-50 KT IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX FRIDAY
EVENING AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH RETURNING MOIST/INSTABILITY
AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME FROM SCNTRL THROUGH SERN TX OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A LOW END SEVERE
RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2013

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