SWODY1
SPC AC 040559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
A WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
IN THE MID-MO VALLEY. THIS WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE THE NAM/GFS AND NAMKF DEVELOPS CONVECTION
LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 06Z
TO 12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT IN CNTRL AND ERN SD SHOW MUCAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
THE BASE OF THE ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SPREAD A PLUME
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEWD INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE 0-6
KM SHEAR INTO THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 11/04/2008
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