SWODY1
SPC AC 050057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS EVENING WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE PLAINS
AS A 50 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET FROM NRN NEB ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN SD INTO SE ND AND
WRN MN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER AND COOL TEMPS IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
WILL IN TURN INCREASE MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY CONCENTRATED ABOVE 700 MB. IN ADDITION...A BAND
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WOODLAKE MN PROFILER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18 C/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IN SCNTRL NEB...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
GREATER WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...THE RUC SUGGESTS A VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE MORE
EFFECTIVE IN SCNTRL NEB AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH.
..BROYLES.. 11/05/2008
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