SWOD48
SPC AC 060832
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SAT NOV 06 2010
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.S. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH/RIDGE WHICH IS PROGGED TO
FORM OVER THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF AMPLIFIED
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMERGING FROM A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES
NOSING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE
MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAINS QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...AND TOO SUBSTANTIAL TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE
MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY CERTAIN... THOUGH...THAT GULF BOUNDARY
LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PRIOR TO NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
..KERR.. 11/06/2010
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