MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2374

ACUS11 KWNS 120846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120846
LAZ000-121015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120846Z - 121015Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST.
HOWEVER...THESE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW.

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE TX
COAST INTO SW LA WHERE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S F. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXISTS SEWD ALONG THE COAST OF SRN LA
WITH THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM ABOUT 50 TO 100 MILES NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW A
SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTING THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST
FRONT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PORTION OF THE LINE ENTERING WCNTRL LA AND
FAR SE TX. HOWEVER...NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOW IN PARTS OF SW LA...A
FORWARD SPEED OF 30 TO 35 KT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE-10 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 11/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30059369 30349342 30709332 30919340 30929213 30899173
30699126 30479100 30139099 29909119 29789154 29759229
29809287 30059369

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