SWODY1
SPC AC 121246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST WED NOV 12 2008
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX/LA COAST...
LINEAR MCS EVOLVED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE UPPER TX COAST AT
DAYBREAK. NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT OVER SRN LA...BUT CONTINUES TO INGEST AND/OR OVERRIDE
STABLE SURFACE AIR NORTH OF COASTAL WARM FRONT HOLDING JUST
OFFSHORE. WITH H85 JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS LA THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN THE DAY AS LLJ LIFTS INTO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...12Z SIL SOUNDING INDICATES VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF ONGOING LINE.
THIS SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
MORNING.
FARTHER SW...SURFACE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SAGGING
SWD INTO SRN TX TODAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LACK
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE MODERATE MLCAPE...BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS WRN TX AS ANOTHER
SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD LATER TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASING ACROSS SRN TX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 11/12/2008
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