SWOD48
SPC AC 020952
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A WLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SERN
STATES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY/DAY 5 AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WHICH IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
FOR TUESDAY/DAY 6 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS KEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCKED UP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES
AND CAN NOT PINPOINT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012
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