DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030033
SWODY1
SPC AC 030031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS ALREADY NOSING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GENERALLY BASED ABOVE A RESIDUAL COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING...AS A LESS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY MORE PROMINENT BLOCKING
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.

HOWEVER...A STRONGER MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
ROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER
LOW...AND NOSE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION...BUT A SUBSTANTIVE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS PROGGED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING FOCUSED AREA
OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS THE
NORTHWARD RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME...GENERALLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.

SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS LATE. WHILE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
MOST STORMS APPEAR LIKELY FORM...AND REMAIN BASED...ABOVE AT LEAST A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. AS SUCH...SEVERE HAIL SEEMS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 02/03/2012

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