MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0091

ACUS11 KWNS 022144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022144
OKZ000-TXZ000-022345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX THROUGH TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022144Z - 022345Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00-01Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK THIS EVENING.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...A WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK. AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 23-00Z.

WV AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW AN UPPER JET STREAK FROM SRN AZ
THROUGH SRN AND ERN NM WITHIN BASE OF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL
AND SRN ROCKIES. MID-UPPER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PROMOTING
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN MN INTO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. THIS AREA REMAINS WELL NORTH OF GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS W-CNTRL AND WRN TX...AND AS A RESULT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LLJ IS STRENGTHENING OVER WRN TX WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NWD DESTABILIZATION. STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY THIS EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF THE TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND WRN OK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES NWD WITH TIME. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH
LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS. A WINDOW MAY
EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ON NRN FRINGE OF
GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AND BEFORE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35660102 35940010 35789943 35109895 34409890 33739923
33040014 32580115 32720180 33880201 35030165 35660102

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