SWODY1
SPC AC 021240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR NW TX/WRN OK...
...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM UT/AZ TO
CO/NM AS A MID-UPPER JET STREAK EJECTS ENEWD FROM SRN AZ/SW NM TO
THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
IN THE LEE OF THE NM ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE NW TX/WRN OK AREA BY TONIGHT. THE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL INDUCE INCREASING SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NW TX AND OK...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NWD/NWWD. THE MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM...RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS W/NW TX BY THIS EVENING...SPREADING
NWD INTO SW OK TONIGHT.
FORECAST WIND PROFILES FROM THE SUITE OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...AS EVIDENCED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2 AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT ALONG THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND
DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVECTIVE SCHEME INFLUENCES COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECMWF/RUC...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS MOST SUGGESTIVE OF
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NW TX/SE TX PANHANDLE INTO SW OK. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DRT REVEALED DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5 F HIGHER THAN
FORECAST BY EITHER THE 06Z NAM OR GFS IN THE SURFACE-850 MB
LAYER...THUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THOUGH NOT SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE AFTER DARK AS RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW TX.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S NEAR THE
CAPROCK IN THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING PHASES WITH
ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN
OK/SRN KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
STORM THREATS WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED FARTHER N INTO
KS.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/02/2012
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