SWOD48
SPC AC 220833
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WILL BE AT A
PREMIUM IN THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME AS PRIMARY HIGH LEVEL WLY CURRENT
WILL REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL INTRUSION ON
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTENING/ASCENT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED LLJ...THEN
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY IS
JUST TOO WEAK GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND THE DAY5 TIME FRAME MODELS ARE TOO DIVERSE FOR
ANY MEANINGFUL PREDICTABILITY.
..DARROW.. 09/22/2008
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