SWODY3
SPC AC 220716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. WHILE MODEST
WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WEAK LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. WHERE ANY
MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO
IA. SRN FRINGE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THIS REGION
WITH GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE NAM. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ALONG SFC FRONT...WILL OPT NOT TO
INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
FARTHER SOUTH...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE SERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED AND PROPAGATES WWD INTO SC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
..DARROW.. 09/22/2008
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