SWODY2
SPC AC 220545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER MANITOBA AS IT LIFTS NORTH WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF STRONG JET TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM OCCLUDES WELL
NORTH OF THE BORDER THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL ARC ACROSS
MN...SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
NAM...AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS SUGGEST A SECONDARY STRONG SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARD MN. THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD SHARPEN THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE...PRIMARILY OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT LATE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
DESTABILIZE THIS REGION PARTICULARLY WELL WITH SFC-BASED CAPE
FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG NEAR
THE IA BORDER. STRONGER HEATING ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT INTO KS
SHOULD PROVE MORE UNSTABLE WITH UP TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE...THROUGH
WEAKLY FORCED. IF INSTABILITY IS GREATER THAN FORECAST OVER MN THEN
A SLIGHT RISK COULD CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED DUE TO STRONGLY
FORCED/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. REGARDLESS...A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION OF LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FARTHER SW...MORE ISOLATED...DIURNALLY DOMINANT...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ACROSS IA...SERN NEB INTO CNTRL KS. GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
..DARROW.. 09/22/2008
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