MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2277

ACUS11 KWNS 230321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230321
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-230415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ND THRU NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907...

VALID 230321Z - 230415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
ND EXTENDING NEWD INTO NWRN MN. A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLD DMGG
WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER PARTS OF
WALSH/PEMBINA CO. ND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE AT 4O KTS
REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY 4Z. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HR
INDICATE THE SEVERE THREAT HAS WANED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER S
ACROSS NRN SD INTO SRN ND...SUB-SEVERE LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
NE AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND FORCING ALOFT AID IN SUSTAINING THIS
ACTIVITY. THE MOST ROBUST TSTMS AT 0315Z ARE ORIENTED N-S IN A
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL SD AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK
NEWD AND MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH 50KT LLJ NOW EVIDENT
IN ABR VWP...THESE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PART OF WW 907
AROUND 5Z AND POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR PRIMARILY ISOLD DMGG WINDS.

..SMITH.. 09/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45949800 45920198 46980208 46930082 48979945 48979526
48539531 48509557 47449556 47489683 47259685 47239769
46649767 46599802

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