SWODY1
SPC AC 221951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLNS...
...NRN PLNS...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS BEGINNING TO TURN BASE AND
HEAD ENE TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLNS AT MID-AFTN AND IS PROGD TO
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS TONIGHT. TSTMS DVLPG OVER NW CO/SW WY
APPEARS TO MARK THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS ASCENT IS EXTRAPOLATED INTO ERN WY
AFT 21Z AND THE ADJACENT WRN DAKS/PNHDL NEB NEAR 00Z.
THIS MORNING SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED A STRONG CAP AND THE 18Z BIS
SOUNDING IS NO DIFFERENT. ASIDE FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION LIFTING
NWD THROUGH ND...STRONG ASCENT/MOISTENING IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WILL
BE NEEDED TO ERODE THE CINH IN PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST TSTMS WILL EVOLVE AS HIGH-BASED
ACTIVITY OVER NRN CO/WY THAT MAY GIVE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORMS WILL FORM PRIOR TO SUNSET ALONG A N-S ORIENTED
BOUNDARY FROM WRN NEB PNHDL NWD INTO CNTRL ND.
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST W OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY
AXIS...BUT 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
INITIATION ZONE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS. STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY...BUT AS ACTIVITY GROWS MORE
LINEARLY WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT.
..RACY.. 09/22/2008
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