DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141616
SWODY1
SPC AC 141615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED DEC 14 2011

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NCNTRL TX NEWD TO OZARK PLATEAU...
12Z UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WAS
MERGING WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...A LEAD IMPULSE WAS EJECTING ENE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH
A SECONDARY MID-LVL JET STREAK NOTED OVER NWRN SONORA MEXICO.

SWLY LLJ OF 45-55 KTS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FROM TX INTO THE MID-MS
VLY AHEAD OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPR TROUGH. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND THE MOST NUMEROUS TSTMS WERE
CONFINED ALONG/N OF A WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER SW
KS TO CNTRL MO.

SFC LOW WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION TONIGHT WITH A
MOISTENING/WARMING AIR MASS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO
PARTS OF TX. MOST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE
GRTLKS REGION WITH ONLY WEAK/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FARTHER S. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH VEERING LLVL WINDS AND CLOUD-MITIGATING BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A MINIMAL SVR THREAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU WHERE STRONGER SUPPORT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM H5-H7 LAPSE RATES
EXIST. FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AND NCNTRL TX...SLIGHTLY
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE COMMON AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY MID-LVL JET STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION /EFFECTIVELY
WEAKENING 700 MB CAP/...A REGENERATION OF STORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLD DMGG WINDS/HAIL ARE
EXPECTED.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/14/2011

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