SWODY2
SPC AC 180530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN IA TO SWRN OK...
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF PLAINS TROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER RUNS AND IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THE DIGGING TROUGH. AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
DIGS ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL ENABLE A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT TO
SURGE SWD TO A POSITION FROM SWRN IA...SWWD INTO NWRN OK BY 20/00Z.
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST 55-60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. FOR THIS REASON FORECAST
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE MID
MO/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE NOSE OF STRONG LLJ. WITH
TIME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMOVE
THE INHIBITION AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SERN
NEB/SWRN IA THEN SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS OK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SEVERE PROBS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO EVOLVE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION
THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED AND SEVERE PROBS WILL BE INCREASED
FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/WIND.
...ELSEWHERE...
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ERN GULF STATES TO A
POSITION ACROSS GA/NRN FL BY 20/00Z. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
A MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND WILL MAINTAIN <5%
PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 04/18/2012
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