SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181848
NCZ000-SCZ000-182015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN SC/ADJACENT PART OF SERN
NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181848Z - 182015Z
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SC INTO ADJACENT COUNTIES INTO SERN NC.
18Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NRN-NERN SC /INVOF CHESTERFIELD COUNTY/ WITH A TROUGH /ALSO
DEPICTED AS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY PER VIS IMAGERY/
EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH SRN SC TO SERN-SRN GA. SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH CURRENT MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING SWD
FROM NEAR THE LOW INTO COLLETON COUNTY SC. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA
SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK...35-40 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ARE SUPPORTING BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..PETERS.. 04/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
LAT...LON 33488071 34438065 34988004 34797899 34447865 33947893
33367950 32998010 32918066 32938091 33488071
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