SWODY1
SPC AC 190057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA...
THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD THROUGH NRN IL...SRN IA AND NWRN KS. WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SRN SD. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER MOST OF
THIS REGION WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY THE OMAHA AND
TOPEKA 00Z RAOBS. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF 800-1200 J/KG MUCAPE
RESIDES OVER CNTRL KS WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS WITH LOW-MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
PRIMARY ZONE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
VORT MAX MOVING INTO WRN SD AND WRN NEB WHERE HIGH BASED STORMS
EXIST EARLY THIS EVENING. LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS PROGRESSIVE IMPULSE RESULTING IN NWD MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE INTO ERN NEB
AND WRN IA OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..DIAL.. 04/19/2012
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