SWODY1
SPC AC 171236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH UPR LOW NOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL LIFT NE INTO
QUEBEC...TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S. EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS CONTINUES ESE TO THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO/SRN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD RIDGE
WILL HOLD FIRM IN THE WEST...WITH CENTER SHIFTING SLOWLY E/SE TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SW FROM DEEP LOW IN QUEBEC SHOULD
EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SE ACROSS GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS AS A WEAK WAVE
FORMS ALONG IT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPR DISTURBANCE.
...SRN SC/GA INTO FL...
SCTD TSTMS WILL FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
OVER SRN SC AND ERN/SRN GA LATER TODAY. OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM IN
CNTRL AND NERN FL ALONG AXIS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT. RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 10C AT 500 MB/ AND MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF MEAN WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN MODEST...20-25 KT DEEP WSWLY FLOW AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL/PULSE
STORMS. THESE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVE.
...SWRN STATES...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN AXIS OF MODEST PW /VALUES AROUND .5 INCHES/
OVER SRN PARTS OF NM/AZ. THIS MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STNRY TODAY. SFC HEATING AND PERHAPS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING W ALONG SRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE MAY FOSTER
DIURNAL STORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. WEAK E/NELY MID/UPR LVL
FLOW SHOULD FAVOR WWD STORM MOVEMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
DESERT VLYS...WHERE INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/17/2009
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