SWODY1
SPC AC 251627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST NEEDED. EXPANDED LOW TSTM
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/ERN
OK. LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION PROFILES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z IMMEDIATELY
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION VALID AND UNCHANGED.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0638 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE W CST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM NOW NEARING 150W. RISING HEIGHTS IN THE
WEST SHOULD FOSTER PHASING OF THE TWO DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW PRESENT OVER THE NRN RCKYS AND THE SWRN STATES. THE SWRN SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NM/TX BORDER BY THIS EVE...WHILE THE NRN
SYSTEM AMPLIFIES ESE INTO WY. THE TWO SHOULD PHASE OVER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EARLY SAT...AND EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MS VLY EARLY SUN.
...SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS...
MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NE IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN TROUGH. AS THIS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE SRN RCKYS AND HI PLNS...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NM ENE INTO PARTS OF OK LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE MUCAPE COULD
APPROACH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
FARTHER S...A NARROW ZONE OF LWR LVL MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA WILL FOCUS
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEE TROUGH OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY REGION OF S
TX. BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL MOISTENING WILL
REMAIN MODEST...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. BUT CONVERGENCE/WAA MAY
SUPPORT A FEW NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS DURING THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
..RACY/ROGERS.. 11/25/2011
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