SWODY3
SPC AC 250805
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...CNTRL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...
THE LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ALLUDED TO IN THE D2
OUTLOOK...INCREASES FURTHER INTO D3 AND RENDERS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST.
AFTER A PERIOD OF PHASING LATE FRI INTO SAT ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE
00Z ECMWF FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
MON...FARTHER SW THAN THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN MAINTAIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
ERN ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES QUITE CONTRASTING WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
HOLDING THE FRONT ACROSS AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...WHILE THE GFS IS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z MON. AS
SUCH...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INLAND PENETRATION OF
LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE EFFECTIVELY
PINCHES OFF THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH SEEMINGLY MINIMAL TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD. A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST BASED SOLELY ON THE ECMWF. BUT
GIVEN THE VERY LARGE SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE...WILL DEFER TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011
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