SWODY1
SPC AC 080051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS PART OF BROADER OVERALL SHIFT TOWARD LOWER AMPLITUDE...THIS
EVENING'S UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES EJECTING CYCLONE OVER GREAT
BASIN THAT WILL DEVOLVE TO OPEN-WAVE CHARACTER THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. RESULTING/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH WRN
MT...ID/WY BORDER REGION AND NERN AZ BY 12Z. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROCEED EWD ACROSS ERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE FOREGOING LEE
TROUGH BECOMES MORE SHARPLY DEFINED OVER HIGH PLAINS FROM MT-NM.
...ERN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
TWO PRIMARY CORRIDORS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT...FIRST FROM
S-CENTRAL/SERN WY SSWWD ACROSS WRN CO TO NWRN NM NEAR LOW-LEVEL
FRONT...SECOND OVER S-CENTRAL/NERN UT BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT.
POCKETS OF RESIDUAL LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTM POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ERN BAND WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
EACH ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER. HOWEVER...SFC-BASED BUOYANCY AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM NOW THROUGH
END OF PERIOD...RESULTING FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. MEANWHILE...DURING NEXT
1-2 HOURS...ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938 FOR NOWCAST
DETAILS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/08/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment