SWODY3
SPC AC 070721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AT 12Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER WRN PARTS OF
NEB/SD WITHIN AN ATTENDANT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ON SATURDAY AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE
TILT...WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES DETACHED COMPLETELY FROM THE NRN
STREAM AND SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT
SLOWLY E/SEWD TOWARD SERN SD/SWRN MN SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND ALSO INTO ERN
KS...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT SHIFTS SWD AND STALLS FROM NRN OK TO THE
TX PANHANDLE.
ASIDE FROM AN EARLY PERIOD THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS...THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT JUXTAPOSED WITH GREATER INSTABILITY E OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND ACROSS NRN MN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A SEVERE THREAT ON DAY 3.
..PETERS.. 10/07/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment