SWODY1
SPC AC 071253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. UPR LOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT EDGES E AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ABSORBED WITHIN MEAN WSWLY FLOW IMPINGING FROM THE E
PACIFIC. NEVERTHELESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
OVER THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS THIS PERIOD...WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING SRN CA EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ENE ACROSS THE LWR CO VLY AND FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC RIDGING OVER THE S CNTRL U.S...IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MID/UPR
TROUGH IN THE EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE MOISTURE RETURN E OF
THE RCKYS. BUT LINGERING AXIS OF LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED RISK FOR TSTMS OVER PARTS
OF GRT BASIN/RCKYS THIS PERIOD...BOTH BENEATH UPR LOW/TROUGH...AND
IN AREA OF WAA/FRONTAL ASCENT FARTHER E.
...ERN UT/FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL RCKYS...
SCTD TSTMS SHOULD FORM/INTENSIFY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NNE
INTO WRN CO BY EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP FARTHER NNE
TOWARD S CNTRL WY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVE. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM A BIT LATER OVER CNTRL/ERN UT...CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROUGH.
THESE...TOO...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP NNEWD.
LOW-LVL FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPR LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E ACROSS ERN UT/FAR WRN CO TODAY...WITH SFC HEATING REMOVING CINH.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...WITH PW
AROUND A HALF INCH AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOW-50S F...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD AFTN POCKETS OF SBCAPE
UP TO 500 J/KG BY 21-00Z. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF MAIN UPR SYSTEM...EXPECT 40-50 KT DEEP SSWLY OVER THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL...DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY. STORMS MAY
STRENGTHEN AND/OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NE AZ/NW NM/SW CO THIS EVE/EARLY FRI AS
AFOREMENTIONED CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION...
ENHANCING BOTH ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/07/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment