SWODY1
SPC AC 150431
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE
REGION IN ITS WAKE. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -25C AT 500 MB/
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND WAVE...AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VT/NH/ME...FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S
TO NEAR 70F AND PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES/ WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SRN
FL DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...A SUBSIDENT LARGE-SCALE
REGIME AND WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OVER THE WRN CONUS...ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM
THE NERN TROUGH. STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTENING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED
FROM CNTRL ID E TOWARD YELLOWSTONE...MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..GARNER/GRAMS.. 10/15/2011
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