SWOD48
SPC AC 150843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /THU. OCT. 20/
AS AN INITIAL VORTEX/TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH...MODEL HANDLING OF THE SUBSEQUENT/SHORTER-WAVELENGTH
TROUGHS IS LESS CONSISTENT -- AND THUS PREDICTABILITY OF ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST DAY 4 /TUE. OCT. 18/...AS A SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD APPEAR LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/ERN VA...WITH MOST
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THE
START OF DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD HINDER A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT.
THUS...WHILE A THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED THIS
FORECAST...ADDITION OF AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES IS ANTICIPATED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS PRESUMING MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
..GOSS.. 10/15/2011
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